Türkiye'de İç Borçların İktisadi Etkilerinin VAR Tekniğiyle Analizi (Analysis of Economic Effects of Domestic Debt in Turkey using Vector Autoregression (VAR) Technique)

Ferhat Başkan, Ö. Bülent Güloğlu

Abstract


In this article, causalities between domestic debt and main macroeconomic variables are tested for the 1988:12-2003:4 period; the direction and size of these relationships are determined by using the VAR (Vector Autoregression) technique. The impulse-response functions from VAR are improved by Monte Carlo simulations. The results of the article indicate that central bank money is the variable which has the most significant impact on the domestic debt. Although the interest rate, foreign exchange level and non-interest budget expenditures also influence the domestic debt, their influences are relatively small. The results show as well that a shock to the domestic debt has a negative and significant impact on central bank money. In this case, one could not argue that the domestic debt is monetarised. Thus the unpleasant monetarist arithmetic hypothesis, which suggests that the domestic debt is monetarised, is not supported by the results.

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